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Utjecaj financijskog razvoja na rast: analiza vremenske kauzalnosti za Tursku

机译:金融发展对增长的影响:土耳其时间因果关系分析

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摘要

The goal of this research is to determine whether the causal relationship betweenfinancial development and economic growth in Turkey is stable over time. For thispurpose, causal relationship between financial development and economic growthin Turkey has been investigated by means of annual data for the period of 1960-2013. Differently from previous studies in the literature, considering that causalrelationship between financial development and economic growth might changedepending on time, time-varying causality test developed by Balcilar, Ozdemir andArslanturk (2010) has been used. The results show that there is a unidirectionalcausal relationship from financial development to economic growth and thisrelationship changes depending on time. It is seen that unidirectional causalityfrom financial development to economic growth emerged during the periods offinancial turmoil and political crisis. The basic conclusion is that there is no stablecausal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Turkeyover the given time period.
机译:这项研究的目的是确定土耳其的金融发展与经济增长之间的因果关系是否随着时间推移而稳定。为此,已通过1960-2013年期间的年度数据调查了土耳其金融发展与经济增长之间的因果关系。与文献中先前的研究不同,考虑到金融发展与经济增长之间的因果关系可能随时间而变化,因此使用了Balcilar,Ozdemir和Arslanturk(2010)开发的时变因果关系检验。结果表明,从金融发展到经济增长存在单向因果关系,这种关系随时间而变化。可以看出,在金融动荡和政治危机时期,出现了从金融发展到经济增长的单向因果关系。基本结论是,在一定时期内,土耳其的金融发展与经济增长之间没有稳定的因果关系。

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